Epic Journey: Did Moses' Exodus Really Happen?

In the Bible, he is called Moses. In the Koran, he is the prophet Musa.

Religious scholars have long questioned whether of the story of a prophet leading God's chosen people in a great exodus out of Egypt and the freedom it brought them afterwards was real, but the similarities between a pharaoh's ancient hymn and a psalm of David might hold the link to his existence.

Tune in to Part 2 of Christiane Amanpour's ABC News special, "Back to the Beginning," which explores the history of the Bible from Genesis to Jesus, on Friday, Dec. 28 at 9 p.m. ET on ABC.

Christian scripture says Moses was content to grow old with his family in the vast deserted wilderness of Midian, and 40 years passed until the Bible says God spoke to him through the Burning Bush and told him to lead his people, the Israelites, out of Egypt. According to tradition, that miraculous bush can still be seen today enclosed within the ancient walls of St. Catherine's Monastery, located not far from Moses' hometown.

But there was another figure in the ancient world who gave up everything to answer the call from what he believed was the one and only true God.

Archaeologists discovered the remains of the ancient city of Amarna in the 1800s. Egyptologist Rawya Ismail, who has been studying the ruins for years, believes, as other archaeologists do, that Pharaoh Akhenaten built the city as a tribute to Aten, the sun.

G.Sioen/De Agostini/Getty Images

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She said it was a bold and unusual step for the pharaoh to leave the luxurious trappings of palace life in Luxor for the inhospitable landscape of Amarna, but it might have been his only choice as the priests from the existing religious establishment gained power.

"The very powerful Amun-Ra priests that he couldn't stand against gained control of the whole country," Ismail said. "The idea was to find a place that had never been used by any other gods -- to be virgin is what he called it -- so he chose this place."

All over the walls inside the city's beautiful tombs are examples of Akhanaten's radical message of monotheism. There is the Hymn to the Aten, which translates, in part, to: "The earth comes into being by your hand, as you made it. When you dawn, they live. When you set, they die. You yourself are lifetime, one lives by you."

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Some attribute the writing of the hymn to Akhanaten himself, but it bears a striking resemblance to a passage that can be found in the Hebrew Bible: Psalm 104.

"If you compare the hymns from A to Z, you'll find mirror images to it in many of the holy books," Ismail said. "And if you compare certain parts of it, you'll find it almost exactly -- a typical translation for some of the [psalms] of David."

Psalm 104, written a few hundred years later, references a Lord that ruled over Israel and a passage compares him to the sun.

"You hide your face, they are troubled," part of it reads. "You take away your breath, they die, And return to dust. You send forth your breath, they are created, And you renew the face of the earth."

Like the psalm, the Hymn to Aten extols the virtues of the one true God.

"A lot of people think that [the Hymn to Aten] was the source of the [psalms] of David," Ismail said. "Putting Egypt on the trade route, a lot of people traveled from Egypt and came back to Egypt, it wasn't like a country living in isolation."

Ismail believes it is possible that the message from the heretic pharaoh has some connection to the story of Moses and the Exodus, as outlined in the Hebrew Bible.

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Putin signs ban on U.S. adoptions of Russian children

MOSCOW (Reuters) - President Vladimir Putin signed a law on Friday that bans Americans from adopting Russian children and imposes other sanctions in retaliation for a new U.S. human rights law that he says is poisoning relations.

The law, which has ignited outrage among Russian liberals and child rights' advocates, takes effect on January 1. Washington has called the law misguided and said it ties the fate of children to "unrelated political considerations."

It is likely to deepen a chill in U.S.-Russian relations and deal a blow to Putin's image abroad.

Fifty-two children whose adoptions by American parents were underway will remain in Russia, Interfax news agency cited Russia's child rights commissioner, Pavel Astakhov, as saying.

The law, whose text was issued by the Kremlin, will also outlaw some non-governmental organizations that receive U.S. funding and impose a visa ban and asset freeze on Americans accused of violating the rights of Russians abroad.

Pro-Kremlin lawmakers initially drafted the bill to mirror the U.S. Magnitsky Act, which bars entry to Russians accused of involvement in the death in custody of anti-corruption lawyer Sergei Magnitsky and other alleged rights abuses.

The restrictions on adoptions and non-profit groups were added to the legislation later, going beyond a tit-for-tat move and escalating a dispute with Washington at a time when ties are also strained by issues such as the Syrian crisis.

Putin's spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, said the Magnitsky Act had "seriously undermined" the "reset" -- the moniker for the effort U.S. President Barack Obama launched early in his first term to improve relations between the former Cold War foes.

Putin has backed the hawkish response with a mix of public appeals to patriotism, saying Russia should care for its own children, and belligerent denunciations of what he says is the U.S. desire to impose its will on the world.

Seeking to dampen criticism of the move, Putin also signed a decree ordering an improvement in care for orphans.

Critics of the Russian legislation say Putin has held the welfare of children trapped in an crowded and troubled orphanage system hostage to political maneuvering.

"He signed it after all! He signed one of the most shameful laws in Russia history," a blogger named Yuri Pronko wrote on the popular Russian site LiveJournal.

BLOW TO RUSSIA'S IMAGE

The acquittal on Friday of the only person being tried over Magnitsky's death will fuel accusations by Kremlin critics that the Russian authorities have no intention of seeking justice in a case that has blackened Russia's image.

A Russian court on acquitted Dmitry Kratov, a former deputy head a jail where Magnitsky was held before his death in 2009 after nearly a year in pre-trial detention, after prosecutors themselves dropped charges against him.

Lawyers for Magnitsky's family said they will appeal and called for further investigation.

Magnitsky's colleagues say he is the victim of retribution from the same police investigators he had accused of stealing $230 million from the state through fraudulent tax refunds -- the very same crimes with which he was charged.

The case against Magnitsky was closed after his death but then was reopened again in August 2011.

In an unprecedented move, Russia is trying Magnitsky posthumously for fraud, despite protests from his family and the lawyers that it is unconstitutional to try a dead man. A preliminary hearing is scheduled next month.

Magnitsky's death triggered an international outcry and Kremlin critics said it underscored the dangers faced by Russians who challenge the authorities. The Kremlin's own human rights council said Magnitsky was probably beaten to death.

The adoption ban may further tarnish Putin's international standing at a time when the former KGB officer is under scrutiny over what critics say is a crackdown on dissent since he returned to the Kremlin for a six-year third term in May.

"The law will lead to a sharp drop in the reputation of the Kremlin and of Putin personally abroad, and signal a new phase in relations between the United States and Russia," said Lilia Shevtsova, an expert on Putin with the Carnegie Moscow Centre.

"It is only the first harbinger of a chill."

(Additional reporting by Alexei Anishchuk and Maria Tsvetkova; Editing By Steve Gutterman, Andrew Osborn and Roger Atwood)

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FEOrchard appoints Koh Boon Hwee as non-exec director, non-exec chairman

SINGAPORE : Far East Orchard (FEOrchard), formerly known as Orchard Parade Holdings, has appointed Koh Boon Hwee as a non-executive director and non-executive chairman with effect from 1 January 2013.

62-year-old Mr Koh will take over from Philip Ng who will be stepping down as a non-executive director and non-executive chairman from next year.

In a statement issued on Friday, FEOrchard said Mr Ng will also cease to be a member of the Nominating Committee, but will remain as a strategic advisor.

It added that the appointment of Mr Koh is a continuing progression in the organisational development of the company and its business growth.

FEOrchard has undergone a strategic corporate restructuring this year with a new diversified portfolio focusing on property development, hospitality real estate development and management, and healthcare real estate space.

Commenting on the appointment, Mr Ng, who is also chief executive officer of FEOrchard's parent, Far East Organization, said: "As FEOrchard begins the next phase of its transformative growth, we will actively develop and expand on our domain real estate capabilities and will also seek to enlarge our footprint beyond Singapore.

"Boon Hwee brings immense value to this endeavour with his excellent record of accomplishments in developing people, businesses and customers across a broad spectrum of industries and markets."

Mr Koh is currently chairman (executive) at Credence Capital Fund II (Cayman) Ltd and Credence Partners Pte Ltd.

He is also currently non-executive chairman of Sunningdale Tech, Yeo Hiap Seng Limited, Yeo Hiap Seng (Malaysia) Berhad, AAC Technologies Holdings, Rippledot Capital Advisers, FEO Hospitality Asset Management, and FEO Hospitality Trust Management.

- CNA/ms

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Twitter: The five biggest stories of 2012

Let's face it: Twitter is an integral part of everyday life. And while that's been true for some time, 2012 was the year the microblogging service became truly mainstream. It was a vital tool during catastrophes, it was the medium of choice for presidential candidates, and it was at the center of political turmoil around the world.

2012 was also a year of business battles for Twitter, with strife between it and Instagram ramping up slowly over the course of the year, and a standoff between Twitter and developers.

But in the end, Twitter's biggest moments of the year coincided with the world's biggest moments -- from an election victory to a successful Olympics and even to a lonely fire department dispatcher sitting in a room letting waterlogged New Yorkers know help was on the way.

1. War with Instagram

Twitter and Instagram used to be best friends. Instagram's CEO used to intern at Odeo, which spawned Twitter, and Twitter co-founder Jack Dorsey was an early investor. Instagram is even located in Twitter's old office space. You could make the argument that if it wasn't for the ease of sharing Instagram photos by tweeting them, Instagram wouldn't have grown as fast as it did.

But while Twitter had wanted to buy Instagram, Facebook got it -- for a princely fee. And ever since, relations between the two companies have been getting steadily more icy. In 2012, that enmity turned into a full-blown war. Twitter began putting out new tools that made it more like Instagram, and then its rival decided to move onto the Web.

It's only in the last few weeks, though, that the fighting has gotten particularly intense. First, Instagram took the major step of cutting off Twitter Card integration, meaning that Instagram photos would no longer show up embedded in tweets. And then, in a bid to out-Instagram Instagram, Twitter unveiled its own set of photo-filtering tools.

2. Cutting off developers

One could make the case that Twitter would never have become as large or as important as it is without the contributions made by third-party developers. Those outsiders readily adopted the microblogging platform and built new services that made using it easier and simple. They also invented some of the most important user conventions, things like hashtags and the @-reply.

But 2012 was the year that Twitter brought the hammer down on developers, in large part because the company worried that too much of the advertising revenue potential was being lost to developers of Twitter clients like HootSuite or Echofon. As a result, Twitter implemented API limits and controls over how many users third-party clients can have that made it very difficult to maintain a business as a Twitter client. It also pulled the plug on third-party photo-hosting services in its mobile apps. Developers quickly cried foul.

Instead, Twitter seems intent on getting developers to build new applications around Twitter's data, and around the idea of what CEO Dick Costolo calls creating "accretive value" for users," not around serving up tweets. It's been quite clear about this, and there's no question that developers know what the guidelines are now. But the question is whether third-party developers will forgive Twitter for imposing the various restrictions and continue to build the kinds of tools that users love, and that help grow the platform.

3. Big Bird and the presidential election

It was thanks to this year's first presidential debate between Barack Obama and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney that Big Bird became one of the biggest stars of the 2012 election. But it was also clear that Twitter itself was an election star, becoming an indispensable tool for those who wanted to weigh in on the latest developments in the race for the White House.

Over the course of the four debates -- three presidential
face-offs and one vice-presidential showdown -- Twitter users posted 27.5 million tweets packed with their thoughts on whether President Obama had done better or if Gov. Romney had prevailed. There were also lots of tweets about binders full of women, and even about Jack Kennedy.

It also became clear in 2012 that Twitter is worth candidates' time, because appeals for action and money work better on Twitter than elsewhere.

And part of that has to do with the fact that it was evident Twitter users were really engaged in the election. That's one reason Twitter itself set up a special page for the presidential election and why there were 31 million election-related tweets sent on Election Day. Of course, one of those tweets became the most retweeted in history: President Obama's victory tweet, which has been retweeted more than 817,000 times.

4. Hurricane Sandy

It will probably never be clear if Hurricane Sandy had a material outcome on the 2012 presidential election, but what is clear is that one of the few winners during the horrible storm that devastated the Northeast was Twitter. During the disaster, there were more than 20 million storm-related tweets sent. A small, but not so insignificant number of them were sent by the woman running the Fire Department of New York's Twitter feed, @FDNY, who stayed online throughout the worst of the storm, tweeting out dispatch calls, and making it easy to see that the department was doing its best to help.

For one day, as Sandy smashed head-on into the East Coast, the Twittersphere got more serious, keeping snark to a minimum, and reflecting the attitude of the moment. And no snark could have been fairly directed at Newark, N.J., mayor Cory Booker, who turned to Twitter to give out crucial information and offer help to struggling residents.

5. Twitter goes fully mainstream

It's hard to argue with the notion that Twitter is now fully mainstream. It is seen by many as the quickest way to get information about breaking news, and it's where an increasing number of celebrities, politicians, athletes, and others interact with the public at large.

Singer Justin Bieber, for example, tweeted a heartfelt goodbye to a young fan that died of cancer, and his followers (31.4 million as of this writing) responded, retweeting it more than 220,000 times.

It seemed that every day, Twitter broke new records for number of users (140 million at last official count) or number of tweets per day (half a billion per day). But one probable new record -- Twitter couldn't confirm it -- is the number of followers that the pope got before he ever sent a single tweet. At last count by CNET prior to his first tweet, the pontiff (@pontifex) was at 638,000 followers. Now, just a day (and seven tweets) later, he's up to 965,000 followers.

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Another NYC "subway push" death

NEW YORK A mumbling woman pushed a man to his death in front of a subway train on Thursday night, the second time this month someone has been killed in such nightmarish fashion, police said.

The man was standing on the elevated platform of a 7 train in Queens at about 8 p.m. when he was shoved by the woman, who witnesses said had been following him closely and mumbling to herself, New York Police Department chief spokesman Paul Browne said.

When the train pulled in, the woman got up from a nearby bench and shoved the man down, he said. The man had been standing with his back to her.

Authorities say the woman waited until the last possible second before pushing the man, reports CBS New York station WCBS-TV.

It didn't appear the man noticed her before he was shoved onto the tracks, police said. The condition of the man's body was making it difficult to identify him, police said.

"Oh my God. That ... I've never heard of that. That is really ... a woman pushed a man. ... Oh my God. That is really crazy," area resident Shiek Hossain told WCBS-TV.

The woman fled, and police were searching for her. She was described as Hispanic, in her 20s, heavyset and about 5-foot-5, wearing a blue, white and gray ski jacket and Nike sneakers with gray on top and red on the bottom.

It was unclear if the man and the woman knew each other or if anyone tried to help the man up before he was struck by the train and killed.

There was no video of the incident at the station on Queens Boulevard in the Sunnyside neighborhood. Detectives canvassed the neighborhood for useable video.

On Dec. 3, 58-year-old Ki-Suck Han was shoved in front of a train in Times Square. A photograph of him on the tracks a split second before he was killed was published on the front of the New York Post the next day, causing an uproar and debate over whether the photographer, who had been waiting for a train, should have tried to help him and whether the newspaper should have run the image. Apparently no one else tried to help up Han, either.

A homeless man, 30-year-old Naeem Davis, was charged with murder in Han's death and was ordered held without bail. He has pleaded not guilty and has said that Han was the aggressor and had attacked him first. The two men hadn't met before.

Service was suspended Thursday night on the 7 train line, which connects Manhattan and Queens, and the Metropolitan Transportation Authority was using buses to shuttle riders while police investigated.

Being pushed onto the train tracks is a silent fear for many of the commuters who ride the city's subway a total of more than 5.2 million times on an average weekday, but deaths are rare.

Among the more high-profile cases was the January 1999 death of aspiring screenwriter Kendra Webdale, who was shoved by a former mental patient. After that, the state Legislature passed Kendra's Law, which lets mental health authorities supervise patients who live outside institutions to make sure they are taking their medications and aren't threats to safety.

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White House Says It Has No New Fiscal Cliff Plan

The White House said today it has no plans to offer new proposals to avoid the fiscal cliff which looms over the country's economy just five days from now, but will meet Friday with Congressional leaders in a last ditch effort to forge a deal.

Republicans and Democrats made no conciliatory gestures in public today, despite the urgency.

The White House said President Obama would meet Friday with Democratic and Republican leaders. But a spokesman for House Speaker John Boehner said the Republican "will continue to stress that the House has already passed legislation to avert the entire fiscal cliff and now the Senate must act."

The White House announced the meeting after Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., called the budget situation "a mess" and urged the president to present a fresh proposal.

"I told the president I would be happy to look at whatever he proposes, but the truth is we're coming up against a hard deadline here, and as I said, this is a conversation we should have had months ago," McConnell said of his phone call with Obama Wednesday night.

McConnell added, "Republicans aren't about to write a blank check for anything Senate Democrats put forward just because we find ourselves at the edge of the cliff."

"That having been said, we'll see what the president has to propose," the Republican Senate leader said.

But a senior White House official told ABC News, "There is no White House bill."

That statement, however, may have wiggle room. Earlier today White House spokesman Jay Carney said, "I don't have any meetings to announce," but a short time later, Friday's meeting was made public.

It's unclear if the two sides are playing a game of political chicken or whether the administration is braced for the fiscal cliff.

Earlier today, fiscal cliff, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid lashed out at Republicans in a scathing speech that targeted House Republicans and particularly Boehner.

Charles Dharapak/AP Photo

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Reid, D-Nev., spoke on the floor of the Senate as the president returned to Washington early from an Hawaiian vacation in what appears to be a dwindling hope for a deal.

The House of Representatives will meet for legislative business Sunday evening, leaving the door cracked open ever so slightly to the possibility of a last-minute agreement.

But on a conference call with Republican House members Thursday afternoon, Boehner kept to the Republican hard line that if the Senate wants a deal it should amend bills already passed by the House.

That was the exact opposite of what Reid said in the morning, that Republicans should accept a bill passed by Democratic led Senate.

Related: What the average American should know about capital gains and the fiscal cliff.

"We are here in Washington working while the members of the House of Representatives are out watching movies and watching their kids play soccer and basketball and doing all kinds of things. They should be here," Reid said. "I can't imagine their consciences."

House Republicans have balked at a White House deal to raise taxes on couples earning more than $250,000 and even rejected Boehner's proposal that would limit the tax increases to people earning more than $1 million.

"It's obvious what's going on," Reid said while referring to Boehner. "He's waiting until Jan. 3 to get reelected to speaker because he has so many people over there that won't follow what he wants. John Boehner seems to care more about keeping his speakership than keeping the nation on a firm financial footing."

Related: Starbucks enters fiscal cliff fray.

Reid said the House is "being operated with a dictatorship of the speaker" and suggested today that the Republicans should agree to accept the original Senate bill pass in July. Reid's comments, however, made it clear he did not expect that to happen.

"It looks like" the nation will go over the fiscal cliff in just five days, he declared.

"It's not too late for the speaker to take up the Senate-passed bill, but that time is even winding down," Reid said. "So I say to the speaker, take the escape hatch that we've left you. Put the economic fate of the nation ahead of your own fate as Speaker of the House."

Boehner's spokesman Michael Steel reacted to Reid's tirade in an email, writing, "Senator Reid should talk less and legislate more. The House has already passed legislation to avoid the entire fiscal cliff. Senate Democrats have not."

Boehner has said it is now up to the Senate to come up with a deal.

Obama, who landed in Washington late this morning, made a round of calls over the last 24 hours to Reid, Boehner, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., and House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif.

Related: Obama pushes fiscal cliff resolution.

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Peace envoy Brahimi, Syria diplomats in Moscow talks

MOSCOW (Reuters) - Russia will host Syria peace envoy Lakhdar Brahimi this week after Syrian officials held talks in Moscow on Thursday as part of a diplomatic drive to try to agree a plan to end the 21-month-old conflict, Russia's foreign ministry said.

Talks have moved to Moscow, a long-time Syria ally, after a flurry of meetings Brahimi held in Damascus this week, but the international envoy has disclosed little about his negotiations.

Brahimi, who saw Syrian President Bashar al-Assad on Monday and is planning to hold a series of meetings with Syrian officials and dissidents this week, is trying to broker a peaceful transfer of power.

More than 44,000 Syrians have been killed in a revolt against four decades of Assad family rule, a conflict that began with peaceful protests in March last year, but which has descended into civil war.

Past peace efforts have floundered, with world powers divided over what has become an increasingly sectarian struggle between mostly Sunni Muslim rebels and Assad's security forces, drawn primarily from his Shi'ite-rooted Alawite minority.

Syrian Deputy Foreign Minister Faisal Makdad and an aide held talks for less than two hours on Thursday with Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Mikhail Bogdanov, the Kremlin's envoy for Middle East affairs, but declined to disclose details of their visit.

Syrian and Lebanese sources said Makdad had been sent to Moscow to discuss the details of a peace plan proposed by Brahimi.

Foreign Ministry spokesman Alexander Lukashevich played down the idea that a specific new proposal was on the table in Moscow talks, at least one agreed by Moscow and Washington.

Asked about rumors of a Russian-American plan to resolve the conflict, he said: "There has not been and is no such plan."

'TRYING TO FEEL A WAY OUT'

"In our talks with Mr. Brahimi and with our American colleagues, we are trying to feel a way out of this situation on the basis of our common plan of action that was agreed in Geneva in June," Lukashevich told reporters at a weekly briefing.

Setting the scene for a planned Russian meeting with Brahimi on Saturday, he said, "We plan to discuss a range of issues linked to a political and diplomatic settlement in Syria, including Brahimi's efforts aimed at ending the violence and the launch of a comprehensive national dialogue."

World powers believe Russia, which has given Assad military and diplomatic aid to help him weather the uprising, has the ear of Syria's government and must be a key player in peace talks.

Moscow has tried to distance itself from Assad in recent months and has said it is not propping him up, but Lukashevich reiterated its stance that Assad's exit from power could not be a precondition for negotiations.

Setting such a condition, he said, would violate the terms of an agreement reached by world powers in Geneva on June 30 that called for a transitional government in Syria.

Lukashevich said Russia continued to believe there was "no alternative" to the Geneva Declaration and repeated accusations that the United States has reneged on it.

"Our American colleagues and some others ... have turned sharply from this position, by 180 degrees, supporting the opposition and conducting no dialogue with the government - putting the opposition in the mood for no dialogue with the authorities but for overthrowing the authorities," he said.

"The biggest disagreement ... is that one side thinks Assad should leave at the start of the process - that is the U.S. position, and the other thinks his departure should be a result of the process - that would be the Russian position," Dmitry Trenin, an analyst at the Moscow Carnegie Center, told Reuters.

But Trenin said battlefield gains made by the Syrian rebels were narrowing the gap between Moscow and Washington.

On Saturday, Lavrov said that neither side would win Syria's civil war and that Assad would not quit even if Russia or China told him to. Bogdanov had earlier acknowledged that Syrian rebels might win.

Lavrov has said this month that Russia had no intention of offering Assad asylum and would not act as messenger for other nations seeking his exit.

(Additional reporting by Nastassia Astrasheuskaya; Writing by Alissa de Carbonnel; Editing by Andrew Osborn)

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Fewer small businesses confident of growth in 2013: survey

SINGAPORE: Fewer small companies in Singapore are confident that their businesses will grow in 2013 compared to the years before, found the CPA Australia Asia Pacific Small Business Survey.

The survey, conducted by accounting body CPA Australia between 2 and 15 October, covered 250 businesses that have fewer than 21 employees. The businesses surveyed spanned the retail, information, media and telecommunications sectors.

Businesses in Australia, Hong Kong, Malaysia, New Zealand and Indonesia were also polled for this report.

According to CPA Australia, confidence among Singaporean small businesses has been on a steady decline since 2010.

74 per cent of small Singaporean companies expect their businesses to grow in the year ahead, down from 77 per cent and 85 per cent in the last two consecutive years.

Gavan Ord, business policy adviser at CPA Australia said: "While confidence is relatively high, Singapore small businesses are significantly more likely to expect their business to 'grow a little' than 'grow strongly', indicating that business confidence is somewhat weaker than (what) the headline figure indicates."

"Reflecting this, the percentage of Singapore businesses that expect to increase their marketing spend in 2013 is the lowest of all markets surveyed," he added.

More Singapore businesses however expect the local economy to improve.

60 per cent of small businesses in Singapore expect the local economy to grow "strongly" or "a little" in the year ahead, compared to 56 per cent a year ago.

- CNA/jc

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Mobile: 10 predictions for 2013

Verizon and HTC are just two companies that are expecting a busy 2013.

(Credit:
Sarah Tew/CNET)

If nothing else, 2012 has shown that the mobile industry is a pretty tough business to be in.

Many handset manufacturers, wireless carriers, and component suppliers felt the pressures of mobile business sink in, and as a result, there were a lot of shake-ups this year.

The same pressures and competitive dynamics are expected to persist next year, so expect a lot more action. The following predictions are based on conversations with industry sources over the last few months, market trends, speculation, and a little wishful thinking.

One thing's for sure, the industry should keep us all on our toes in 2013.

Consolidation continues


The wireless industry has long talked about the need for fewer service providers, and 2013 should follow through on some of the groundwork laid this year. SoftBank's controlling stake in Sprint Nextel and T-Mobile USA's merger with MetroPCS may signal a long-anticipated industry consolidation.

Other regional carriers such as U.S. Cellular and prepaid provider Leap Wireless could be in someone's crosshairs. MetroPCS and Leap were long rumored to be dance partners, but that talk ceased when T-Mobile opted to form a new company with MetroPCS. But perhaps there's room for Leap on that bandwagon?

Sprint attempted to make a run at MetroPCS, according to a Securities and Exchange Commission filing made by MetroPCS. Sprint could make another run at MetroPCS, or perhaps go after Leap. The wireless business is a scale business, where bigger is better, so maybe Sprint looks elsewhere?

It's a safe bet that the big two, Verizon Wireless and AT&T, won't be making any major deals. Verizon just managed to get approval for its deal to acquire spectrum from the cable companies, while AT&T is likely still gun shy after regulators squashed its attempted takeover of T-Mobile last year. AT&T has been content to strike smaller deals and get those through the regulatory maze.

CEO Steve Ballmer and the Windows Phone 8X from HTC.

(Credit:
Sarah Tew/CNET)

No clear third OS emerges


Next year sees a vicious battle for the so-called coveted No. 3 spot for mobile operating systems behind Google's
Android and Apple's iOS.

The contenders are Microsoft's Windows Phone 8 and Research in Motion's BlackBerry 10. Both have expressed confidence that they have what it takes to be the third player in this increasingly crowded business. Windows Phone 8 benefits from an earlier launch and the coattails of the massive
Windows 8 campaign from Microsoft. RIM, meanwhile, already boasts a large base of customers and will get a launch window all its own early next year.

Our call on this: nobody wins. Both will scrape by with just enough sales to warrant continuing, but neither will see spectacular performance.

While Microsoft is selling its Windows Phone 8 platform as part of a family of Windows 8 products, Windows 8 itself isn't off to a scintillating start, and that might slow adoption of the mobile OS.

BlackBerry 10, meanwhile, may get some traction with hardcore BlackBerry users who want an upgrade, but it'll take a while for RIM to convince other consumers to take another chance on the platform. While RIM likes to boast of its 80-million-strong customer base (now 79 million after the fiscal third quarter), many of those customers are using the more affordable BlackBerry 7 devices.

In addition, the dominance of Android and Apple make it extremely difficult for any third player to make inroads on the market.

RIM in store for a shake up

If BlackBerry 10 isn't a success out of the gate, expect to see some agitation within the investment community -- or what's left of it -- which has patiently held out hope for a turnaround. Investors don't have unlimited patience, and an early stumble could mean pressure on the company to shake things up.

That could mean anything from another change on top, although CEO Thorsten Heins has led the company with relatively far fewer mistakes than his predecessors, to a potential sale of the company. The company could make good on its push to license its BlackBerry 10 operating system to different industries.

Last year, I called for RIM to get taken out, and I won't be burned by that prediction again. RIM does survive, but it either a drastically reduced or transformed way.

Spectrum grab

It's amazing what a few deals will do to the state of a crisis, right? All of the industry's biggest players, including AT&T and Verizon Wireless, all claimed a looming spectrum crisis in justifying their respective deals. After Verizon got its cable spectrum, and AT&T scooped up a number of smaller businesses, the rhetoric has changed greatly. Even Sprint and T-Mobile are sounding a lot more optimistic about things.

But the companies do insist that they need more spectrum, or the airwaves used to carry cellular traffic like voice and data, and they will likely pursue further deals next year. Sprint bought spectrum from U.S. Cellular, likely a prelude of future spectrum swaps. Verizon is also selling off a swath of its spectrum as a condition to acquiring an alternative patch of spectrum from the cable providers, something that'll likely entice all companies, including T-Mobile to other smaller regional companies.

Dish Network, meanwhile, is sitting on a wealth of spectrum. The most likely scenario is that it sells to AT&T, but the company is considering dabbling in mobile video.

A new chairman of the Federal Communications Commission is expected to replace Julius Genachowski next year, but with President Obama back for a second term, the FCC's agenda and focus on spectrum shouldn't change too much.

Google gets more active in wireless service

Sound farfetched? Well, the recent rumors that Google met with Dish to talk about a new wireless service lends some credibility to this prediction.

And Google already has a wired business in Google Fiber. While the deployment is limited to one area, the fact that it exists shows the Internet search giant is willing to dabble in different projects.

Dish has slowly been amassing enough spectrum for a nationwide service of its own, and has made it clear it would like to build a network. But the business requires a lot of capital, and it's unclear whether Dish has the firepower to actually meet its goals. Enter Google, which has a lot of cash and technical resources.

This prediction is admittedly on a longer limb. It wouldn't be surprising if this never happened.

What does Sprint CEO Dan Hesse have in store for us next?

(Credit:
Lynn La/CNET)

Softbank kick-starts Sprint

The infusion of $8 billion in additional capital should do wonders for Sprint's prospects in the wireless market. The company has been criticized for its slow deployment of 4G LTE, which has managed to avoid major cities while covering "key markets" such as Rome, Ga., and Rockford, Ill.

Well, the extra cash should get CEO Dan Hesse moving a lot quicker when it comes to its 4G LTE rollout, which lags behind AT&T and Verizon. Unlike AT&T, which at least has a relatively quick HSPA+ network for its phones, Sprint customers using the most high-end devices are stuck on the painfully slow 3G CDMA technology, since it dropped using its variant of 4G, WiMax, in favor of LTE.

Sprint should get a wider selection of smartphones thank to its relationship with SoftBank. If SoftBank CEO Masayoshi Son is to be believed, Sprint will get even more competitive with pricing as it takes on its bigger rivals.

Higher focus on prepaid

Every carrier is going to rededicate itself to attacking the prepaid market, particularly with growth in the contract subscriber market quickly evaporating.

T-Mobile, which already has a sizable prepaid business, should only see its presence grow there once it joins up with MetroPCS, which only offers no-contract plans. CEO John Legere's hints at a "different experience" for its iPhone could mean an affordable prepaid option for Apple's marquee device.

Even larger carriers such as Verizon can't ignore prepaid, given the need to keep customer growth humming. Sprint, which has been aggressive in prepaid with its Virgin Mobile and Boost Mobile lines, was seen as the biggest potential loser of the T-Mobile-MetroPCS marriage.

Using Google Wallet to pay for a cab ride was complicated and awkward.

(Credit:
Roger Cheng/CNET)

Mobile payments whiff again

Next year is the year for mobile payments, really! Yeah, that line has only been uttered a few times over the past several years, and so far, we've got a few limited launches.

Google continues to have the most visible initiative out there, and it hasn't really taken too many people by storm, despite seeding the capability and Google Wallet out to its Nexus smartphones. Isis, the joint venture between AT&T, Verizon Wireless, and T-Mobile, just started its trials last month, and there are no signs when it'll move beyond that. The deal between Starbucks and Square seems interesting, but for now, it's largely Square processing Starbucks payments and not fully utilizing the advantages of full mobile payments.

Mobile payments continue to be hampered by rival groups all with their own agendas, and some don't even feel it really addresses any real problems.

Apple, meanwhile, hasn't committed to the Near-Field Communication technology used by many of the mobile payment parties, and offers its PassBook as its take on a mobile wallet. Even then, the implementation has been limited and disappointing.

Apple, Samsung will dominate, but new entrants could mix things up

With the iPhone and, increasingly, the Galaxy S, brands coming with their own built-in hype machines, expect the two companies continue reaping in a majority of the profits. Companies such as HTC, LG, and Sony have struggled this year, and those struggles are expected to continue with few of them bringing out a product that really changes their circumstance.

HTC has the best shot with its
Droid DNA, but it too lacks the resources to effectively compete against Apple and Samsung. Sony, LG, and a myriad of other companies are still looking for the right answers.

Next year could see some interesting new smartphones from Microsoft and Amazon, both long rumored to be building their own handsets. Google's Motorola Mobility unit is reportedly building an "X" flagship phone that will better compete with the iPhone and Galaxy S III.

Samsung and Apple reach a settlement


Let's file this one under the wishful thinking category. But I can't be the only one sick of writing and reading about patent lawsuits, right?

This one is (sadly) not looking so good, especially if Samsung is saying this.

Let's hope that the goodwill from the holidays carries through to Apple and Samsung's lawyers. But most likely, the hostilities will continue as both try to one-up each other in courts around the world.

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Former President Bush in ICU

Updated 6:40 p.m. ET

A "stubborn" fever that kept former President George H.W. Bush in a hospital over Christmas has gotten worse, and doctors have put him on a liquids-only diet, his spokesman said Wednesday, describing Bush's condition as guarded to CBS News.

Jim McGrath, Bush's spokesman in Houston, had said earlier in the day that the fever had gone away, but he later corrected himself.

"It's an elevated fever, so it's actually gone up in the last day or two," McGrath told The Associated Press. "It's a stubborn fever that won't go away."

"Following a series of setbacks including a persistent fever, President Bush was admitted to the intensive care unit at Methodist Hospital on Sunday where he remains in guarded condition," McGrath said in an emailed statement. "Doctors at Methodist continue to be cautiously optimistic about the current course of treatment. The President is alert and conversing with medical staff, and is surrounded by family."

Doctors at Methodist Hospital in Houston have run tests and are treating the fever with Tylenol, but they still haven't nailed down a cause, McGrath said. Doctors also have put Bush on a liquid diet, though McGrath could not say why.

The bronchitis-like cough that initially brought Bush to the hospital on Nov. 23 has improved, McGrath said. The 88-year-old is now coughing about once a day, he said.

Bush was visited on Christmas by his wife, Barbara, his son, Neil, and Neil's wife, Maria, and a grandson, McGrath said. Bush's daughter, Dorothy, will arrive Wednesday in Houston from Bethesda, Md. The 41st president has also been visited twice by his sons, George W. Bush, the 43rd president, and Jeb Bush, former governor of Florida.

Bush and his wife live in Houston during the winter and spend their summers at a home in Kennebunkport, Maine.

The former president was a naval aviator in World War II - at one point the youngest in the Navy - and was shot down over the Pacific. He achieved notoriety in retirement for skydiving on at least three of his birthdays since leaving the White House in 1992.

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